What goes unused can fulfil new wishes.

What the numbers mean

A registration means a newly created account, adjusted for test, bot and identifiable duplicate accounts. It is neither a monthly active person nor a paying customer. Only additional registrations from October 2026 are counted; an unverified starting account total is not included.

Cumulative means the sum up to the end of the year. Accounts later deleted or inactive remain historical registrations. The sum is not the current number of accounts. Year 1 runs from October 2026 to September 2027, with subsequent years following on.

Three different sets of conditions

Weak: little organic spread, low regional offer density and declining new registrations. Not a guaranteed minimum: stagnation, no new registrations or the project ending are also possible.

Several functioning regional communities and repeatable user acquisition. Even this middle planning variant requires very strong growth; it is not a statistical expected value.

Breakthrough: strong referrals, relevant partnerships and successful expansion into several markets. An ambitious success scenario, not a likely commitment.

What reach would be needed

For illustration, 10% of qualified visits by interested people who are not yet registered lead to a new account. This is not a measured Permutis conversion rate or an industry benchmark.

Visits per year = new registrations ÷ registration rate. Visits per month = annual requirement ÷ 12.

At 10%, Base requires around 15,000 qualified visits per month in year 1 and 900,000 in year 5. Breakthrough requires around 4 million per month in year 5.

At 5%, the requirement doubles; at 15%, it falls to two thirds. The calculation shows requirements but does not prove they can be achieved.

Reach needs sustainable funding

Advertising should be paid for from cash flow actually available. The existing 30% cost allowance includes advertising and other costs, including payment fees; it is not entirely available as an advertising budget. Depending on the model year, the Base plan assumes 65–75% of registrations come organically, through referrals or partnerships. This too remains unproven.

Later measurements must be compared with these requirements: qualified visits, registration rate, first offers, completed swaps, return visits and cost per acquired user. Activity and paying customers require separate, evidenced rates.

The model starts in October 2026 with no existing subscriptions. New registrations are spread evenly across twelve months; the entered proportion starts a subscription in the month of registration. Later conversions and reactivations are not included.

New subscriptions per month = new registrations per year ÷ 12 × subscription conversion rate. Remaining subscriptions = subscriptions at the start of the month × (1 − cancellation rate). Subscriptions at month-end = remaining subscriptions + new subscriptions.

Monthly revenue uses the average of subscriptions at the start and end of the month. New and cancelled subscriptions therefore contribute approximately half a month. Remaining subscriptions carry over to the following month and year.

Average net monthly revenue should account for the mix of plans, annual discounts, VAT and refunds. Annual subscriptions are allocated across their service months. The monthly cancellation rate is a simplified assumption for the entire subscription base; annual renewals are not simulated separately.

One-time Founder memberships, credits and other revenue are not included. Annual totals are rounded to whole euros; cumulative revenue is the sum of those annual figures. Costs are not deducted.